INDEPENDENT SCORE PROJECTIONS

Game board

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Model projection Market comparison

Market lines are display-only. They are not model inputs. A pick appears only when the model-versus-market edge meets the published threshold.

TRANSPARENCY

Methodology

Score-first

The system predicts each team’s final score. Projected spread and total are arithmetic consequences, rather than separately optimized betting targets.

Pre-kickoff only

Inputs use earlier game results, point-in-time opponent-adjusted ratings, preseason Elo, talent, recruiting, rest, week, and neutral-site status.

Market firewall

Opening and current lines are retrieved after predictions are created. They are displayed for comparison and never enter model fitting or score prediction.

Walk-forward evaluation

Each season is predicted by a model trained only on preceding seasons. Seasonal performance and feature coverage are published in the data-quality section.

AUDIT TRAIL

Data quality & performance

These charts expose raw-source coverage, pre-model feature sparsity, every retained input distribution, and untouched seasonal performance.

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Feature missingness heatmap — Feature missingness before model handling

Feature distribution histograms — Distribution of every retained model input

Download the underlying audit tables: coverage, missingness, distributions, season metrics, and out-of-fold predictions.